Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, LME and SHFE Copper Fluctuate at High Levels and Close Higher [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM March 19 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,842.5, fluctuated during the session, reaching a high of $9,917.0 and a low of $9,837.0, showing a fluctuating upward trend overall. It finally closed at $9,902.0, up $37.5 from the previous close of $9,864.5, an increase of 0.38%. Trading volume reached 15,927 lots, and open interest was 290,561 lots. Overnight, SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 80,560 yuan/mt, fluctuated during the session, hitting a high of 80,640 yuan/mt and a low of 80,220 yuan/mt, showing a fluctuating trend overall. It finally closed at 80,550 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan from the previous value, an increase of 0.25%. Trading volume was 32,138 lots, and open interest reached 231,245 lots. Macro side, regarding US tariffs, the US Treasury Secretary stated that reciprocal tariff rates on April 2 will vary by country, with some countries potentially facing lower rates. The US dollar index hovered at lows. In the Middle East, the Israeli military launched another large-scale airstrike on the Gaza Strip. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both Putin and Zelensky agreed to a 30-day non-attack on energy facilities. Additionally, according to SMM, the Panamanian president has approved the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrates, but these have not entered the Chinese market. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced on Monday that it issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia. Freeport Indonesia stated that it has obtained an export license for 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, allowing ships loaded with Freeport copper concentrates to commence shipments. Amid mixed factors, copper prices hovered at highs. Fundamentally, copper prices stood above the 80,000 yuan threshold, with downstream consumption under pressure. Meanwhile, after the delivery of the 2503 contract, suppliers showed stronger sentiment to hold back cargoes, warrant registrations increased, and available circulating supply tightened. Spot prices are expected to maintain a slight premium. Additionally, according to SMM, a large number of long-term contracts for imported copper cathode scheduled to arrive in China in April have been delayed or canceled, which may lead to a continued decline in net imports of copper cathode in the future. In summary, the US dollar index remained at low levels and continued to decline. Copper prices are expected to remain firm today.